Sunday, October 28, 2007

Putin Says Missle Defense Like "Cuban Crises"


In 1962, the world was on the edge of nuclear war. Russia had placed nuclear missles in Cuba, and the United States demanded they be removed. President Kennedy put a naval blockade on Cuba, and as Russian ships neared the blockade, the world teetered on the brink of World War III. It was the closest we have come to all-out war in the nuclear age.

Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed. An agreement was reached where Russia removed its missles from Cuba, and the U.S. removed its missles from Turkey. Now it looks like Bush is trying to create the same kind of crises.

Bush doesn't see it that way, but neither did Khrushchev when he put the missles in Cuba. The important thing is that is how Putin sees it. Bush putting a missle defense system in eastern Europe is viewed by Putin to be as dangerous to Russia as the missles in Cuba were to the U.S.

It is easy to see why he would view it that way. A missle defense system in eastern Europe could render Russia's missles useless, while still leaving them vulnerable to missles from the United States. That would upset the balance of "mutually assured destruction" and force Russia to take action to prevent it (just as Kennedy was forced to take action in 1962).

The path Bush is taking could once again bring America and Russia to the brink of war, possibly even a nuclear war. The scary part is that Bush doesn't seem to see the danger. He still thinks he can talk Putin into accepting the system. He is wrong.

Putin will never allow Russia to be put in such a compromised position. Fortunately, Putin seems to still want to be on good terms with the United States, and has given Bush two ways to defuse the coming crises. He can either not build the system, or he can build it in conjunction with Russia so that both parties will have the system.

Both of these solutions would maintain the delicate balance between the two countries, and avert the crises. Now we must wait and see if Bush is smart enough to realize this and make the right choice.

Unfortunately, he has not shown this much intelligence in the past.

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